ARC Fund was the first organisation to introduce the concept and practice of foresight in Bulgaria as a key policy making tool that is being widely used in most European countries. Since October 2002, when ARC Fund launched the ForeTech project, it successfully implemented two pilot foresight initiatives focused on (i) Biotechnologies in the Agro-Food industry, and (ii) e-Government. These initiatives were implemented by prominent experts from the respective sectors and mobilized representatives of all stakeholders. They resulted in enhanced awareness about the role of foresight in policy development and decision making, in better institutional capacity to organize and conduct foresight programmes and initiatives, and in a set of recommendations and suggestions to national and EU-level policy makers for devising measures in support of RTD and innovation.
The first tangible outcomes are now available for public use:
Foresight Methodology Outline
Biotech report on Vinery and Winery (in Bulgarian)
Biotech report on Buffalo Breeding(in Bulgarian)
e-Government report (in Bulgarian)
A major milestone marking the completion of the foresight pilot initiatives in Bulgaria was the international conference on Technology Foresight – New Opportunities for Bulgaria which ARC Fund organized within the framework of the ForeTech project on May 27, 2004 at the Sheraton Hotel in Sofia.
The main objective of this conference was to benchmark the Bulgarian experience in applying the foresight methodology in two pilot areas – eGovernment and Biotechnologies – against that of a number of EU countries, and to present the outcomes of the pilot implementation of foresight in the two target areas.
The conference brought together leading foresight experts from the UK, foresight practitioners from Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Romania, high-level representatives of Bulgaria government agencies (e.g. Agency for Economic Analyses and Forecasting, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Science and Education, Ministry of Transport and Communications, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry), and stakeholders from the business and academic communities, and mass media.
Dr. Ognian Shentov, Chairman of ARC Fund, opened the conference with a key note on the importance of foresight in the process of policy development and decision making in Bulgaria, and the multiple challenges that could be faced by applying foresight. Ms. Nevelina Veleva from the German Agency for Technical Cooperation GTZ – Bulgaria, outlined the priority areas of bilateral cooperation between Germany and Bulgaria, and the rationale behind GTZ’s support for technology foresight.
Mr. Ivaylo Kalfin, Economic Advisor to the President of the Republic of Bulgaria, stressed the crucial importance of the institutional environment for technology development and innovation, as well as the need to put the strategic outcomes of foresight into practice. Dr. Rumen Borisov, Executive Director of the Agency for Economic Analyses and Forecasting presented the different stages of the forecasting process in Bulgaria and benchmarked this to the foresight experience. The measures in support of innovation taken by the Ministry of Economy were presented by Ms. Kristina Andonova, head of the Development of Buisness Environment Department.
Ms. Zoya Damianova, the ForeTech project manager presented the project objectives and made an assessment of the extent to which they had been met. Ms. Daniela Tchonkova shared with the audience the Bulgarian perception of foresight as gained throughout the pilot initiatives in Bulgaria. The experience from the pilot initiatives was further enriched by members of the foresight panels who illustrated the work completed and the outcomes. The major milestones of the foresight pilots were several scenarios and a set of recommendations which were presented by Ms. Denitsa Marinova from AgroBioInstitute and Ms. Sonya Spassova from the Ministry of Transport and Communications in their capacity of panel members. The foresight scenarios illustrated possible alternative future developments in the two sectors, and outlined the future history of events needed to reach the most desirable scenarios. They were complemented with a set of recommendations aimed at present-day decisions and actions to be taken in the very near future.
Mr. Elie Faroult from DG Research of the European Commission revealed the role of foresight in the Sixth Framework Programme (FP6), the future foresight-related activities and the foresight opportunities emerging to the New EU member states and candidate countries.
The international experience on foresight was presented to the audience by the ForeTech consortium partners from Hungary – Mr. Ferenc Kovats, and the Czech Republic – Ms. Kristina Kadlecikova. These two countries have already initiated and completed their national foresight programs, and so the speakers shared their assessment of the impact of foresight on technology development and the follow-up actions taken. They stressed the lessons learnt both in terms of management of a large international consortium and in pilot foresight implementation in countries such as Bulgaria and Romania. The Romanian pilot foresight initiative on biotechnologies was presented by Mr. Radu Albulescu, member of their national expert panel.
The concluding session was devoted to benchmarking the Bulgarian experience to that of Hungary and the Czech Republic. A comparative analysis had been made of the foresight experience in the three countries in two main aspects: process-oriented analysis and analysis of the policy implications from foresight. The first one was presented by Dr. Michael Keenan from PREST, the Victoria University of Manchester, who outlined the advantages and drawbacks in the foresight process and the methodologies that had been used. Dr. Slavo Radosevic from the University College London stressed the policy implications caused in each country and the degree of sustainability of the foresight process as compared to others.
